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Myanmar/Thailand economy: A limited impact on the labour market
The Asian Economic Community (AEC) is scheduled to arrive by end-2015, but its labour-market provisions apply to only a tiny share of employment. As a result, divergent demographics and economic development will continue to shape labour markets and long-term economic prospects in mainland South-east Asia. While the AEC will lead to freer movement of skilled workers, most labour mobility will continue to consist of low- and medium-skilled workers.
For several decades now, patterns of labour migration in mainland South-east Asia-Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam-have reflected differences in economic development. In short, Thailand is by far the biggest recipient of labour from outside its borders and will continue to be. According to the most recent data from the UN's International Labour Organisation (ILO) there were 2.7m migrant workers registered in Thailand, followed by Myanmar (72,000), Cambodia (68,000), Laos (14,000) and Vietnam (10,000).
Thailand's demography helps to explain this trend. Unlike its poorer neighbours, Thailand's population is ageing fast: The share of the Thai population aged 60 or more will explode from only 10% in 2007 to nearly 30% in 2050, according to the UN Population Division. In less than a decade, its 40m-strong labour force will start shrinking. Foreign workers are already...