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A nuclear-armed Taiwan facing off against a nuclear-armed China? It could have happened.
FROM TIME TO TIME, OFFICIALS IN Taiwan admit they once had a nuclear weapons program, but they have rarely discussed details. Instead, they enjoy the widespread perception that Taiwan is a "virtual proliferant"-a state that could make nuclear weapons quickly if the need should arise.
Taiwan's talk of nuclear weapons rises and falls with moments of heightened tension. In July 1995, right after China test-fired missiles into nearby waters, President Lee Teng-hui told the national assembly: "We should restudy the question [of nuclear weapons] from a long-term point of view. " 1 He added: "Everyone knows we had had the plan before." But a few days later, Lee turned down the heat, saying that Taiwan "has the ability to develop nuclear weapons, but will definitely not" develop them.2
A nuclear-armed Taiwan facing a nuclear-armed China would be a frightening prospect. Yet Taiwan today has no nuclear weapons and seems to have no plans to develop them-but only because the United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IA) pushed Taiwan hard, particularly in the mid-1970s. Fortunately, Taiwan did not dig in its heels.
At that time, U.S. intelligence agencies considered Taiwan a likely proliferant. But tough international scrutiny, spearheaded by the United States, led to the most controversial parts of Taiwan's secret nuclear program being cut back. When Taiwan did not abandon its nuclear ambitions altogether, another effort was stopped in the late 1980s. Parts of the story, related here, have never before been revealed.
To build or not to build
It is not hard to understand why some factions in the government always wanted nuclear weapons. Taiwan was probably attracted at first by the prestige that possessing nuclear explosives or weapons confers. In addition, Taiwan had an archenemy across the Strait-and, as a Pentagon analysis in the early 1980s concluded: "Despite public and private assurances that it does not intend to build nuclear weapons, many officials at high levels on Taiwan continue to believe that a nuclear capability will provide [Taiwan] with an independent deterrent in the event security arrangements with the United States are unsatisfactory."3
But the arguments against nuclear weapons were also compelling. Possession would seriously strain Taiwan's...