The semiconductor industry and emerging technologies: A study using a modified Delphi method

Abstract

The purpose of this qualitative descriptive study was to determine what leaders in the semiconductor industry thought the future of computing would look like and what emerging materials showed the most promise to overcome the current theoretical limit of 10 nanometers for silicon dioxide. The researcher used a modified Delphi technique in two rounds to gather qualitative information for data collection and iterative process with the respondents to further describe the impacts of such a potentially disruptive technology. The Delphi panel addressed the time frame for when these new technologies may emerge, the potential impacts that emergence may have on organizational structures and the leadership techniques best adapted to facilitate that emergence. The research revealed that the panel members expect it will take about 20 to 30 years for a new technology to emerge that will replace silicon dioxide. The panel members felt the most likely replacement technology would be protein based. At the time this new technology emerges it will be interesting to see if it will be disruptive to existing organizational paradigms. Transformational as well as meritocratic leadership should be critical in adapting to the disruptive innovation.