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Abstract
As a result of its 30-year successful economic growth, China has been gradually reshaping its international position. After the end of the Cold War, the US has been the unquestionable hegemon in the world politics and world economy, but after the economic crisis of 2007-08, the US hegemonic power is slowly eroding, the country's capabilities in shaping world politics are decreasing and the international order, led by the US, is in disarray. On the other hand, China has made enormous efforts to reinforce its international positions over the last decade, which suits more to its growing economic power and own interests. The first part of the paper looks into the main theories on the two major powers' possible future relations. In the second and third part of the paper, theories are being examined on practical bases; on the one hand we look at their relative explaining strength using a geopolitical power index, on the other hand, we briefly analyse main events and processes in their bilateral relations of the last decade to see how their relation is formed dynamically. In the summary, the paper attempts to outline scenarios on how their relation will evolve in the future.
Keywords: China, US, geopolitics
1.Introduction
The discovery of the Americas led to the formation of a functioning international order for the first time. Since then - according to the geopolitical international power theories - in the international arena there has always been at least one country, which could be featured as global leader or hegemon. Modelski's cyclical model (Modelski, 1988) consists of five cycles starting with Portugal in the 15-16th century followed by one Dutch and two British eras. The British cycles lasted till the early 20th century and followed by the contemporary American one. The cycles respectively took about 80-100 years consisting of three stages: rise, peak and fall. The core of the power according to the model is the power capability enabling the control of the world's seas and oceans. The fall of the hegemonic power and the rise of a new great power was each time followed by a great war to control the waterways. This inevitable momentum of armed open conflict is called the Thucydides trap, a term coined by the American...