An econometric study of the export sector of Somalia
Like many other SSA countries, Somalia's exports performed poorly in the world market especially in the last two decades and lost some of its market shares during these period. Gulaid (1980), noted that Somalia lost some of its banana export market shares in the Italian market due to strong competition. This meager performance of the Somalian exports in the world market raises many practical and intellectual questions that require exploration and explanations.
In answering these and other questions, this study focusses on analyzing the behavior and performances of the Somalian exports in the world market. In short, this study pursues two major objectives in order to shed some light on these questions. The first major objective is that of the analysis of the growth and pattern of the Somalian exports. A theme running throughout this study is the need for disaggregating Somalian exports, in order to make a more meaningful assessment of the behavior and performance of the Somalian exports at the commodity group level. Our results indicated that the exports from the private sector wd not only the higher growth rate but also were more stable than the exports from the public sector.
The second objective is the overall analysis of the behavior and performances of the Somalian exports in the world market. In the process a trade model is constructed to provide a meaningful framework for this analysis. The results showed again that the exports from the private sector outperformed than those of the public sector. The final objective of this study is the analysis of the impact of the SAPs adopted by the Somali government during the 1980s on its exports and trade balance, with a particular emphasis on the impact of devaluations. Our analysis showed that Somalia's exports responded differently to these devaluations. Particularly, our results demonstrated that the exports from the public sector responded exceedingly well in contrast with those from the private sector. In the main, the devaluations had the desired consequences on Somalia's exports and trade balance.