Development of a multiregional framework and demonstration of its feasibility for strategic preparedness of interdependent regions
Any region in the US is a complex, interconnected, and interdependent system of systems with multiple stakeholders, spanning multiple sub-regions, and producing a very large number of commodities and products. This dissertation provides a holistic, methodological framework to model this large-scale and complex system from its inherent multisectoral and multiregional interdependencies for strategic preparedness decisions.
A component of this framework is developed by extending the Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM), which currently generates average impact estimates across geography. Such average estimates may lead to overlooking geographically concentrated risks or significant cross-regional interdependencies, which are important in evaluating relevant strategic preparedness options. Part of this dissertation extends the IIM to model the interdependencies among the various regions in the US by introducing and developing the Multiregional IIM (MRIIM) and introducing the spatially explicit concepts of intraregional and interregional interdependency matrices, A* and T*, respectively.
The MRIIM possesses various properties, resulting from its construction and its databases, which guarantee unique solutions when estimating the cascade of disaster impacts across regions and which guarantee convergence when computational methods are applied. This dissertation also develops a geodatabase schema and computation methods supporting the deployment of the MRIIM for preparedness decisions. Finally, a custom MRIIM geodatabase was constructed on a WAMP+M (WAMP+M = Windows operating system, Apache HTTP server, MySQL database, PHP scripting language, +Mapserver) technology stack for open source deployment of the framework.
The MRIIM has been demonstrated using databases from Hurricane Katrina and simulation results from Sandia National Labs as inputs. In particular, one contribution of this dissertation is the demonstration that ignoring the interregional interdependencies leads to possible overestimation or underestimation of regional economic impacts under certain scenarios. Other aspects of this model and the preparedness framework are discussed. The preparedness framework in this dissertation combines contributions on several topics related to the development of a feasible multiregional interdependency analysis system for strategic preparedness.
Area planning & development
0999: Urban planning
0999: Area planning & development