Abstract/Details

Application of intervention analysis to evaluate the impacts of special events on freeways


2008 2008

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Abstract (summary)

In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.

Indexing (details)


Subject
Civil engineering
Classification
0543: Civil engineering
Identifier / keyword
Applied sciences; Freeways; Special events; Traffic management
Title
Application of intervention analysis to evaluate the impacts of special events on freeways
Author
Qi, Jing
Number of pages
179
Publication year
2008
Degree date
2008
School code
1023
Source
DAI-B 70/03, Dissertation Abstracts International
Place of publication
Ann Arbor
Country of publication
United States
ISBN
9781109076899
Advisor
Zhao, Fang
University/institution
Florida International University
University location
United States -- Florida
Degree
Ph.D.
Source type
Dissertations & Theses
Language
English
Document type
Dissertation/Thesis
Dissertation/thesis number
3348915
ProQuest document ID
304815999
Copyright
Database copyright ProQuest LLC; ProQuest does not claim copyright in the individual underlying works.
Document URL
http://search.proquest.com/docview/304815999
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