Un caso de estudio para evaluar alternativas de inversión usando opciones reales
The traditional techniques used to evaluate investment alternatives do not appropriately capture the inherent uncertainty in multistage projects and do not allow for the consideration of managerial flexibility in the decision making process. In order to address these issues, recently, investments decisions have been modeled as real options based on an interesting analogy about financial options. This work presents the application of this methodology using two case studies. The first case deals with the development of a new drug in a pharmaceutical industry in which there is a great deal of uncertainty due to the technological risks involved. The second case study deals with the exploitation of an oil well which has significant economic risks due to the variation in the price of the barrels. The results shows that this methodology provides more precise estimates than conventional discounted-cash-flow techniques since it incorporates better the value of information and volatility involved.
Crude oil prices;