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This article reports on an effort to explore the differences between two approaches to intuition and expertise that are often viewed as conflicting: heuristics and biases (HB) and naturalistic decision making (NDM). Starting from the obvious fact that professional intuition is sometimes marvelous and sometimes flawed, the authors attempt to map the boundary conditions that separate true intuitive skill from overconfident and biased impressions. They conclude that evaluating the likely quality of an intuitive judgment requires an assessment of the predictability of the environment in which the judgment is made and of the individual’s opportunity to learn the regularities of that environment. Subjective experience is not a reliable indicator of judgment accuracy.

In this article we report on an effort to compare our views on the issues of intuition and expertise and to discuss the evidence for our respective positions. When we launched this project, we expected to disagree on many issues, and with good reason: One of us (GK) has spent much of his career thinking about ways to promote reliance on expert intuition in executive decision making and identifies himself as a member of the intellectual community of scholars and practitioners who study naturalistic decision making (NDM). The other (DK) has spent much of his career running experiments in which intuitive judgment was commonly found to be flawed; he is identified with the “heuristics and biases” (HB) approach to the field.

A surprise awaited us when we got together to consider our joint field of interest. We found ourselves agreeing most of the time. Where we initially disagreed, we were usually able to converge upon a common position. Our shared beliefs are much more specific than the commonplace that expert intuition is sometimes remarkably accurate and sometimes off the mark. We accept the commonplace, of course, but we also have similar opinions about more specific questions: What are the...