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ISSUES IN FORECASTING INTERNATIONAL TOURIST TRAVEL

Moss, Steven

; Liu, Jun

; Moss, Janet

.  Academy of Information and Management Sciences Journal

 Vol. 16, Iss. 2,  (2013): 15-29.

In this paper two popular time series methods for modeling seasonality in tourism forecasts are compared. The first uses a decomposition methodology to estimate seasonal variation. In this method seasonal variation is estimated with a ratio-to-centered moving average approach. Three different approaches in calculating the seasonal indices are analyzed. The deseasonalized series are then forecast using an ARIMA model. The second methodology uses a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) approach to simultaneously model trend and seasonal variations. The two methodologies are compared and the accuracy and managerial advantages of each are discussed. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]