Support for climate policy and societal action are linked to perceptions about scientific agreement

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PUBLISHED ONLINE: 20 NOVEMBER 2011 | DOI: http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1295

Web End =10.1038/NCLIMATE1295

Support for climate policy and societal action are linked to perceptions about scientic agreement

Ding Ding1,2, Edward W. Maibach3*, Xiaoquan Zhao3, Connie Roser-Renouf3

and Anthony Leiserowitz4

Although a majority of US citizens think that the president and Congress should address global warming, only a minority think it should be a high priority1. Previous research has shown that four key beliefs about climate changethat it is real, human caused, serious and solvableare important predictors of support for climate policies2. Other research has shown that organized opponents of climate legislation have sought to undermine public support by instilling the belief that there is widespread disagreement among climate scientists about these points3a view shown to be widely held by the public1. Here we examine if this misperception is consequential. We show that the misperception is strongly associated with reduced levels of policy support and injunctive beliefs (that is, beliefs that action should be taken to mitigate global warming). The relationship is mediated by the four previously identied key beliefs about climate change, especially peoples certainty that global warming is occurring. In short, people who believe that scientists disagree on global warming tend to feel less certain that global warming is occurring, and show less support for climate policy. This suggests the potential importance of correcting the widely held public misperception about lack of scientic agreement on global warming.

There is near-unanimous agreement among climate scientists4,5

and by the academies of science in the G8 nations, Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa6that the mean global temperature has increased significantly from preindustrial-age levels and that human activity is a principal cause4,5, although a small number of climate scientists remain unconvinced6. In 2002, Republican strategist Frank Luntz advised President George W. Bush: Voters believe that there is no consensus about global warming in the scientific community. Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly. Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate.7 The Bush administration responded by stressing scientific uncertainty in subsequent official reports8. Likewise, many within the fossil-fuel industry, conservative think tanks and political pundits...