Network evolution in basic science

J Evol Econ (2012) 22:443457 DOI 10.1007/s00191-012-0266-4

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Network evolution in basic science

Thomas Grebel

Published online: 19 April 2012 Springer-Verlag 2012

Abstract Under true uncertainty, as is the case in basic science, researchers need apply generic rules to overcome the imponderability of inventive activities. How such rule-behavior may influence the evolution of networks is modeled in this paper. An empirical survey on medical researchers describes their research context and serves as a motivation to construct a percolation model that illustrates the expected structural evolution of networks. Leaders and followers in a new research field induce a stylized structural evolution of networks.

Keywords Networks Economics of science Knowledge creation

Percolation theory Diffusion

JEL Classification A10 B10 B21 B25 B41

1 Introduction

Knowledge produced in basic research usually is far from applicable. Even in applied research, it takes decades before a marketable technology is accomplished. Consequently, economic returns to potential technological actualizations are negligible drivers of research efforts in basic science. The chances to appropriate possible rents are low (Arrow 1962). The incentive that guides research behavior in medicine is twofold: first, research is an integral and obligatory part of the medical education system; second, it is the foundation of a researchers scientific reputation which is indicated by

T. Grebel (B)

Economics Department, Friedrich-Schiller-University, Jena, Germany e-mail: [e-mail]

444 T. Grebel

his stock of publications, whereas each publication stands for being awarded the priority in discovery. Hence, each publication is the reward for scientific research efforts (Dasgupta and David 1994).

How does one achieve this reward? Because of true uncertainty, there is no operant rule that would determine optimal behavior. Researchers need to apply generic rules, rules that may lead to different actualizations, and to undesired ones (Dopfer 2004). To overcome the lack of sufficient information to act optimally, there are several conceivable generic rules researchers apply: researchers may just look out for new research fields, as the objective is to generate something novel; or, they could cooperate with others, since cooperation reportedly increases the odds of successful research outcomes. Given cooperation is beneficial in any case, there are also different underlying reasons why researchers may cooperate. Institutional frames, for example, put researchers in different contexts which, in turn, influence individual behavior.

A further aspect,...