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PUBLISHED ONLINE: 28 OCTOBER 2012 | DOI: http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1720
Web End =10.1038/NCLIMATE1720
Stephan Lewandowsky*, Gilles E. Gignac and Samuel Vaughan
Although most experts agree that CO2 emissions are causing anthropogenic global warming (AGW), public concern has been declining. One reason for this decline is the manufacture of doubt by political and vested interests, which often challenge the existence of the scientic consensus. The role of perceived consensus in shaping public opinion is therefore of considerable interest: in particular, it is unknown whether consensus determines peoples beliefs causally. It is also unclear whether perception of consensus can override peoples worldviews, which are known to foster rejection of AGW. Study 1 shows that acceptance of several scientic propositionsfrom HIV/AIDS to AGWis captured by a common factor that is correlated with another factor that captures perceived scientic consensus. Study 2 reveals a causal role of perceived consensus by showing that acceptance of AGW increases when consensus is highlighted. Consensus information also neutralizes the effect of worldview.
In light of the pervasive scientific agreement13 that humanity is facing a risk from climate change, and in light of indications that climate change may be outpacing projections4, the publics de
creasing acceptance of the science in at least some countries5,6, and
peoples persistent under-estimation of the scientific consensus7,8
must give rise for concern. Public support for climate legislation has been shown to depend on peoples perception of a consensus among climate scientists, with nearly 60% of the variance in policy support explained by perceived scientific consensus (through mediators involving key beliefs about AGW; ref. 7). However, several questions surrounding perceived consensus remain unanswered.
First, it is unresolved how perceived consensus interacts with peoples political ideology or cultural worldviews, which have been identified as primary obstacles to acceptance of AGW. People who endorse unregulated free markets (that is, individualistic-hierarchical libertarians9) lean towards rejection of AGW (refs 10,11). The polarization of opinions on AGW is also reflected in a partisan split between Republicans and Democrats in the level of perceived consensus in climate science8,12 as well as other
polarizing risk issues such as nuclear power12. On this view,
a scientific consensus is like any other fact that bears on a disputed question, and it may therefore not counteract ideological polarization12. Those findings stand...