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The Paris Agreement was generally welcomed by small island developing States (SIDS) as a good outcome albeit not a great one. At a recent meeting of the Pacific Island Development Forum in Fiji, the Prime Minister of Tuvalu said he was compelled to admit that it was a good outcome, although he also suggested that SIDS had not got everything they wanted. He specifically mentioned the aspirational target of below 1.5°C relative to preindustrial levels as a disappointment. Highly vulnerable coral-atoll nations like Tuvalu would clearly have preferred a firmer emissions-reductions target - below 1.5°C. Their concern was based on the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which suggested that low-lying countries would be severely affected by the impacts of climate change in temperature scenarios above 1.5°C.
Throughout the preparatory negotiations under the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) in Germany and informal consultations in Peru and France, it became evident that the Paris Agreement would be constrained by the political limitations of the executive powers of the US President and his ability to sign a legally binding treaty. Needless to say, many other countries were more than happy to negotiate under these limitations. It was evident that a number of countries from the so-called "Umbrella Group"1 were happy to let the US set the negotiating constraints.
A group of developing countries known as the Like- Minded Developing Countries (LMDC) also took a significant role in setting the constraints - driving an agenda that was not conducive to a substantial outcome. The interesting mix of countries in the LMDC included China, India, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Nicaragua, Tanzania and Bolivia. Their position appeared to rest on the "no harm principle" - ensuring that outcomes under the climate change regime did not affect their "right" to development. Much could be said about this concept, especially considering that there are populations in many of these countries that are very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
In these processes, the SIDS tried to use a variety of groupings, processes and tactics to elevate their interests. During 2015, the Republic of the Marshall Islands began convening meetings of ministers in the margins of the preparatory negotiations. The ministers were...