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ABSTRACT
Observers say that drug production fuels violence in Colombia, but does coca production explain different levels of violence? This article examines the relationship between coca production and guerrilla violence by reviewing national-level data over time and studying Colombia by department, exploring the interactions among guerrilla violence, exports, development, and displacement. It uses historical analysis, cartographic visualization, and analysis of the trends in four high coca-producing and four violent Colombian departments, along with a department-level fixed effects model. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the department-level analysis suggests that coca production is not the driving force of contemporary Colombian guerrilla violence. Instead, economic factors and coca eradication emerge as prominent explanatory factors.
U.S. support for the Government of Colombia (GOC) is designed to attack every element of the drug trade and to assist the GOC to re-establish government control and the rule of law in areas threatened by drug-related violence.
-Fact Sheet, Bureau of International Narcotics and
Law Enforcement Affairs,
U.S. Department of State, Washington, DC, August 12, 2002
According to conventional wisdom, drug production fuels Colombian violence. But does coca production explain different levels of violence in Colombia? The annual data show a strong relationship between coca production and violence. This article examines the relationships among violence, economic factors, and coca production in Colombia. It looks both at national-level data over time and at Colombia by department, including violence, exports, development, and displacement. (Displacement refers to the creation of refugees within Colombia.) This study uses four different tools to explore the relationship between violence and coca production: historical analysis, cartographic visualization, an analysis of the trends in four high coca-producing and four violent Colombian departments, and a department-level fixed effects model. For the statistical analysis, the data are confined to the period 1999-2001 because of the change in the estimate of coca cultivation relative to 1991-97. To illustrate time trends, department-level graphs are provided for 1991-2001. The department-level analysis debunks the conventional wisdom, suggesting that coca production is not the driving force of contemporary Colombian violence; instead, economic factors and coca eradication emerge as prominent explanatory factors to account for different levels of violence in Colombia.
COLOMBIAN VIOLENCE: THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
Most scholars draw a connection between drugs and violence in Colombia. Other factors,...