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This study examined violent behavior from ages 13 to 21 and identified predictors at age 10. Logistic regression was used to assess predictors of developmental patterns of violence. The sample is from a study of 808 youth interviewed annually from age 10 to 16 years, and again at ages 18 and 21. Over 28% of the youth in the sample reported nonviolence throughout adolescence and into early adulthood. Most youth (55%) engaged in violence in adolescence but desisted from violence in early adulthood, while 16% persisted in violent behavior at age 21. Violence in adolescence was best predicted by male gender, Asian American ethnicity (a protective factor), childhood fighting, early individual characteristics, and early antisocial influences. Adult persistence of violence was best predicted by male gender, early school achievement (which was protective), and early antisocial influences. Early prosocial development was also protective against violence persistence for females. Implications for prevention are discussed.
Aggression and violence are relatively common among children and adolescents, with a substantial number engaging in fights or more serious forms of violence. In a study of over 10,000 American adolescents from 12 to 21 years old, 39% reported physical fighting in the past year (Lowry, Powell, Kann, Collins, & Kolbe, 1998; Youth Risk Behavior Survey). Approximately the same percentage of males reported involvement in more serious violent offences, including aggravated assault, robbery, rape, or gang fights, at some point before age 16 across three regional studies: 39% in Denver, 41% in Pittsburgh, and 40% in Rochester (Tatem Kelley, Huizinga, Thornbeny, & Loeber, 1997; these studies oversampled high-risk youth, but samples were statistically weighted to represent the general populations from which the samples were drawn). A notable number of females engaged in serious violent offenses as well by age 16 (16% in Denver and 32% in Rochester). Elliott (1994a) also found relatively high rates of serious violent offenses from the National Youth Survey among males of different ethnic groups. The annual prevalence of these behaviors peaked at age 17 at 36% for African American males and at 25% for Caucasian American males.
Many individuals, however, typically desist from violent behavior by adulthood. Survey studies have shown that, generally, physical aggression peaks early and declines substantially by early adulthood (Loeber & Hay, 1997)....