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At some point in the next several years, the United States will have withdrawn the preponderance of its military forces from Iraq. As Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad has said, "We have opened the Pandora's box, and the question is, what is the way forward?" Any realistic and prudent U.S. strategy must be designed to protect and advance those enduring American interests at play in Iraq and the broader region. In Iraq, the United States must prevent the establishment of safe havens for Al Qaeda, prevent the civil war from becoming a wider war that engulfs the region, and prevent genocide of Iraq's Sunni or Kurdish populations. These three enduring interests-the "Three Nos"-are fundamental to America's security imperatives in Iraq and the region.
The "Three Nos" require a strategy focused on maintaining Iraq's territorial integrity and sovereignty, as well as creating an internal balance of power among Shia, Sunnis, and Kurds that reduces the chances of mass violence and improves the chances of political reconciliation. These interests are interrelated: avoiding Al Qaeda safe havens and preventing genocide will both help reduce the risk of regional war.
While the "Three Nos" constitute our core interests in Iraq, they are also linked to America's broader regional interests. Preventing the establishment of jihadist safe havens in Iraq and elsewhere in the region is a basic U.S. security interest shared by America's allies. Preventing a regional war and genocide within Iraq is a prerequisite to reestablishing stability in the Middle East and, over time, to rebuilding America's image and credibility-in the region and worldwide. They also are critical to protecting vital U.S. interests like maintaining the free flow of energy and checking Iran's hegemonic and nuclear aspirations.
And while democracy promotion should remain an interest of the United States, the last four years of war should serve as proof that the export of democracy by force is a fool's errand. Democracy is the end result of a long evolutionary process, certainly not something that an external power can forcibly graft onto a region with centuries of grievances. America should support the promotion of democracy, but it should be considered a...