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Abstract
We document that the slowdown in the growth of the immigrant population in the United States since 2000 is the largest observed using Census data since 1870. Non-parametric tests reveal that the sharp decline is similar in magnitude to changes in migration growth rates that followed the two major historical regime changes in U.S. immigration policy. Migration rates are slowing across nearly all age, sex, educational and country of origin categories that we examine. We find that the stock of adult migrants under age 30 is smaller in 2015 than in 2000, a potential precursor to a declining overall stock, as was seen around the introduction of the national quotas regime in 1920. Heterogenous changes have led to slower declines for men than women, and an increase in the relative scarcity of low-skilled labor. Approximately half of the overall decline is due to falling Mexican immigration.
Keywords: immigration; demography; population; historical trends.
Introduction
In this paper, we document the historic nature of the recent slowdown in immigration to the U.S. We examine changes in the stock of foreign-born adults (henceforth, immigrant stock) over nearly one hundred and fifty years. We find that while the immigrant stock in 2015 was at a record high level, the growth rate in the stock was the lowest recorded since the 1960s, when major reform to the immigration system took place. In addition, we show that the post-2000 slowdown in the growth of the immigrant stock has been the largest recorded decline in over a century. Examining immigrants by age category, we find that the largest slowdown can be found among immigrants under 30. The growth rate for men has declined more than the growth rate for women and the female foreign born population is now growing more quickly than the male foreign born population for the first time in four decades. In addition, heterogeneity in the slowdown across educational categories has increased the share of high- skilled labor relative to the 1990s trajectory. Separating our analysis by country of origin reveals that some of these larger declines have occurred for traditionally important sending countries. We discuss the importance of these findings for the future of the foreign born population in the United States.
Methods and Findings
We...