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Although numerous studies have assessed the influence of the 1990s redistricting on U.S. House elections, without exception, these published studies rely on aggregate data (e.g., district-level data). Likewise, the author uses aggregate data, but he also departs from previous studies by using survey data to assess the influence of redistricting on vote choice in the 1992 and 1994 U.S. House elections. Unlike past studies, with the use of survey data, the author makes more definitive statements regarding the effects of redistricting on vote choice. The 1990s redistricting was an important factor contributing to the Republicans' House majority because voters drawn into districts with a different incumbent standing for reelection were much more likely to vote Republican.
Keywords: redistricting; redrawn; incumbent; elections; vote choice; U.S. House
The 1994 U.S. House elections were historic as Republicans finally ended more than forty consecutive years of minority status. Overall, the GOP netted fifty-two seats. The 1994 Republican tide was national, deep, and broad-sweeping out of office thirty-four Democratic incumbents while sparing every Republican who ran for reelection (Jacobson 2004). The sheer magnitude of the 1994 elections tends to divert attention away from the significance of the 1992 contests. Although a Democrat won the White House for the first time since the 1970s, 1992 was on balance a Republican year in U.S. House contests as the GOP gained ten seats (Jacobson 2004). The modest Republican shift in 1992 overlooks the underlying significance of a congressional redistricting that proved a major factor in contributing to the ascendancy of House Republicans. Redistricting harmed the electoral fates of Democratic incumbents in the 1992 and 1994 elections because voters who were drawn into districts with a different incumbent were much more likely to vote Republican.
This article examines the relationship between electoral rules (redistricting), the political environment (public opinion), and voting behavior (vote choice). To date, no other published research on the 1990s congressional redistricting has used individual-level data to estimate its effects on vote choice.1 Unlike previous published studies, Svhich rely solely on aggregate-level data, I complement district-level data with individual-level data. In addition, whereas previous research on the partisan impact of the 1990s redistricting has focused overwhelmingly at the regional level-especially the South-I show that the 1990s redistricting was a national...