EURASIA AND FUTURE GEO - STRATEGIC CALCULUS

Abstract

Eurasia is the vast landmass composed of two of the seven traditionally known Continents - Europe and Asia. Europe and Asia, though have traditionally been considered two separate continents, geologically they both lie on the same landmass or tectonic plate, the Eurasian Supercontinent. Despite this the idea of Europe and Asia as two separate, distinct Continents has been in vogue for centuries, more likely due to Euro-centric approach for geopolitical considerations. Eurasian landmass, covers a space of about 55 million sq km that contains 93 ofpresent day countries (almost all of Asian countries including China and Russia, all European countries, Central Asian and some African countries) with a total population of around 4.7 billion people (almost 3/4 of the world's total population - 60% in Asia and 12.5% in Europe). Future of rich energy resources of Eurasia and which way may these go? How would it affect the world, region and EU? There is so much happening almost every other day, that it's hard to predict the future. With the typical information overload of the current age, one wonders which facts matter and which do not.

Headnote

Abstract: Eurasia is the vast landmass composed of two of the seven traditionally known Continents - Europe and Asia. Europe and Asia, though have traditionally been considered two separate continents, geologically they both lie on the same landmass or tectonic plate, the Eurasian Supercontinent. Despite this the idea of Europe and Asia as two separate, distinct Continents has been in vogue for centuries, more likely due to Euro-centric approach for geopolitical considerations. Eurasian landmass, covers a space of about 55 million sq km that contains 93 ofpresent day countries (almost all of Asian countries including China and Russia, all European countries, Central Asian and some African countries) with a total population of around 4.7 billion people (almost 3/4 of the world's total population - 60% in Asia and 12.5% in Europe).

Future of rich energy resources of Eurasia and which way may these go? How would it affect the world, region and EU? There is so much happening almost every other day, that it's hard to predict the future. With the typical information overload of the current age, one wonders which facts matter and which do not.

Key words: Eurasia, energy resources, information overload.

1.INTRODUCTION

Eurasia has been a subject of great interest by geo-strategic thinkers and practitioners since advent of the recorded history. More so, of late, for what has been happening there for the past few years. At the outset, it is essential to clearly understand the term - Eurasia. While geographically, Eurasia is simply the biggest continent: the combined landmass of Europe and Asia. However, geopolitically, the word has several different meanings, reflecting the specific geopolitical interests of each nation. Mainly, there are three major geopolitical definitions.

Firstly, in the widest possible sense, the geopolitical definition of "Eurasia" is consistent with its geographical area. This is sometimes the way it is understood in political circles in the US, Japan and India. Remember, this is what Brzezinski called the 'Grand Chess Board' [1]. Secondly, when political scientists in Western Europe talk about "Eurasia", they generally mean Russia integrated into Europe - economically, politically, and even militarily. Thirdly, Russians traditionally view Russia itself, being European and Asian, as "Eurasian." The Russian sphere of influence, therefore, has historically been described as Eurasia. Their view today is that "Eurasia" consists of the land lying between Europe and Asia proper; namely, those made up of Western and Central Russia, Belarus, Ukraine; part of Caucasus - Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan - and Central Asia Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. This covers about 15 % of the earth's land mass and population both. This is the definition of Eurasia that will be used during the discourse of this paper.

Eurasia has been a melting pot of civilizations, where Russian, Chinese, Turkic, Mongolian and Central Asian nomadic civilizations have co-existed and inter-mingled over centuries. Culturally diverse, yet distinctly Eurasian. Greatly significant since Huns from the Eurasian Steppes ravaged Europe in the 5th Century, or the Mongols conquered much of the known world; Eurasia had been a major player in the now clichéd 'Great Game ' of the 19th and early 20th Century between Czarist Russia and British Empire. After World War-II, containment of Soviet Union during the Cold War remained a major geostrategic pre-occupation of the West. Quite bloated, Eurasia back then, sought security from NATO through Eastern European countries and Baltic States under Warsaw Pact - buffers, so to speak. More than 20 years after collapse of the former-Soviet Union, many analysts contend that a New Great Game ' is brewing these days in the region. With much of Europe's virtual dependence on Eurasian energy resources; China looking westward to secure its energy needs; and a raging quest for dominance in the region between Russia and the West, Eurasian geopolitics have come under sharp focus of the entire world. Paper is an attempt to take an analytical view of the subject; without being bias to any of the stake holders.

Aim

To analyze the evolving geo-strategic calculus of Eurasia with a view to recommending viable policy measures for EU.

2.HISTORICAL CONTEXT AND GEOSTRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE

2.1.Historical Context

Eurasia, through centuries has been the cradle of many civilizations. The heartland of Eurasia led the world economically, scientifically, and artistically for many centuries despite invasions by Persians, Greeks, Arabs, Chinese, and others [2]. Many migrations and conquests out of Eurasia, their mixture with local peoples, and the resulting development of the Greco-Roman, Persian, Indian, and Chinese civilizations had taken the Eurasian cultural influence much beyond its geographical boundaries.

From 18th to early 20th Century, Czarist Russia found itself in almost a perpetual state of conflict, power politics or both - with European imperial powers. Even today, the power politics of 'Balance of Power' and 'Great Game' of the 19th and early 20th centuries have not lost their relevance in the realm of geo-strategy. A lot of scholars still support Mackinder's Heartland Theory of early 20th Century, when he said, "Whoever controls Heartland [Eurasia that we're referring to], controls the World Island [i.e. Europe, Asia and Africa combined]; whoever controls the World Island, controls the world."

Europe's apprehensions of Soviet expansion towards west, both historically and towards the end of World War-II, have also had a profound effect on European and US policies ever since. On the other hand, repeated conquests by European powers on Russia, until the World War-II and their pursuit of 'Containment' Policy during the Cold War, has placed a deep-seeded fear of vulnerability from the West in the Russian psyche. Whether the events taking place today in Russian neighbourhood, reflect the same historical 'Security Dilemma'?

Post Cold War Race for Influence

Immediately after disintegration of former USSR, all major players launched different initiatives for their influence in the region on basis of common political, economic and security interests:

a) Russian Initiatives

- Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) [3]

- Eurasian Economic Community

- Eurasian Union (Figure 1)

- Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)

- Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)

b) Western Initiatives

1.European Union (EU) [4]

The European Union (EU) is a political and economic union of 28 member states that are located primarily in Europe. The EU has developed an internal single market. Covering 7.3% of the world population, EU constitutes approximately 22.2% of global nominal GDP and 16.9% in terms of purchasing power parity. EU was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize [5] in 2012. Due to its global influence, the European Union has been described as an emerging superpower [6].

2.NATO Expansion [7]

NATO is an alliance that consists of 29 independent member countries across North America and Europe. An additional 21 countries participate in NATO's Partnership for Peace program, with 15 other countries involved in institutionalized dialogue programs. The combined military spending of all NATO members constitutes over 70% of the global total. Members' defence spending is supposed to amount to at least 2% of GDP by 2024.

3.Colour Revolutions.

A term widely used for various westsponsored democratic and west-leaning revolutions within the Russian sphere of influence. It included the:

* Rose Revolution in Georgia - 2003.

* Orange Revolution in Ukraine - 2004.

* Tulip Revolution in Kyrgystan - 2005.

* Jeans Revolution in Belarus - 2006.

* Grape Revolution in Moldova - 2009.

4. Russian Invasion in Georgia.

A five-day long conflict between Russia and Georgia in 2008 ended with Russia recognizing the break-away independent states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Relations between the two states have been sour since then.

5. Events in Ukraine.

A series of events in Ukraine has brought Eurasia in the centre of world debates. Briefly, the events can be summarized as:

* In Nov 2013, Ukraine's pro-Russia government withdrew its request for greater cooperation with EU.

* In Feb 2014, pro-West protesters launched a coup, forcing a regime change.

* Sensing the trend of events, Russia annexed Crimean peninsula in March 2014 after a controversial referendum.

* A series of reciprocal economic sanctions followed, led by US and followed by EU and Russia.

* No major break through has so far been made in diplomatic contacts and heads of state meetings.

2.2.Geo-Strategic Significance of Eurasia

Economic Significance

Though encompassing about 15% of the world's landmass and population, Eurasia accounts for about 4% of the world's GDP in nominal terms. In terms of Purchasing Power Parity, however, it almost trebles to about 11 %.

Eurasia, mainly Russia, controls more than 35 % of the world's natural gas reserves and about 7.3 % of its crude oil. Contribution of Eurasian countries in world's gas and oil mix is given in the table below.

Amongst other natural resources, Eurasia accounts for about:

* One-fourth of the world coal. [Russia - 17.3; Ukraine - 3.8; Kazakh - 3.4]

* One-fourth of world's Uranium production. [24 %: Kazakh - 10; Russia - 8; Ukraine - 3; Uzbek - 2]

* 13 % of gold production. [Russia - 8; Uzbek - 3.4; Kyrgyz - 1.]

* 10 % of the world's iron ore.

* 7% of global electricity generation. [Russia - 4.8; Ukraine - 0.9; Kazakh - 0.4; Uzbek - 0.25].

Major hydrocarbon reserves in Eurasia are shown in the picture below.

Russia is the world's largest exporter of fossil fuels - with its proceeds comprising 16% of the GDP, 52% of its federal budget revenues and over 70% of total exports [8].

Russia accounts for about 36% of the continental Europe's natural gas, 31% of oil and 30% of coal supplies. Some central and eastern European countries are almost entirely dependent on Russia for their oil and natural gas [9].

In September 2013, President Xi Jinping, undertook an extended visit of Central Asia promoting the idea of a "Silk Road Economic Belt." [10] Proposed alignment is shown below.

Political Significance

The energy policy is the heart of Russian foreign policy and its geo-political lever in Europe, Caspian Basin, Central Asia and with China [11].

Formation of Eurasian Union provides Russia a forum to exert its political clout globally. Besides, it also enables it to coax or coerce its former satellite states back into its fold.

Central Asia is considered "deeply Russified.." This status has been further underscored by the presence of Russian troops and ethnic Russian inhabitants, as well as strong economic ties and established transportation links to Russia.

The impact of Russia in Central Asia also includes ethnic and linguistic dimensions. Approximately 10 million ethnic Russians [12] call the five former Soviet Central Asian republics home.

China's interest for the Caspian region has found common ground with Russia's ambitions in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

Security

Russia relies on nuclear forces to maintain its status as a major power, because of the reduced capabilities of its conventional forces [13].

Russia has a number of military installations in the region, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan staffed by several thousand military personnel. Russia continues to have a significant geostrategic interest in Central Asia [14].

Six former Soviet republics; Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan now link their militaries to NATO's, via the "Partnership for Peace" program.

All five former Soviet republics in Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan provide NATO countries with some basing, transit, refueling, or over flight rights for use in the Afghan war [15].

Russia's actions in Ukraine have heightened long-standing tensions; and have sparked a strong debate within NATO over how Europe should react to a new, more aggressive Russian foreign policy intended to re-establish a Russian sphere of influence along its border with Europe.

Despite regaining Crimea, in March 2014, there is no land link of Crimea with Russia. Keeping Ukraine within its circle of influence, therefore, is of vital security interest to Russia. From the Russian point of view, NATO expanding into Ukraine threatens Russian interests in the same way, as if the Warsaw Pact had moved in Mexico. Therefore, from a geo-strategic stand point, some of the Russian actions that appear rather offensive are actually defensive in nature.

3.MAJOR PLAYERS' INTERESTS IN EURASIA

Eurasia is considered as an economic and political powerhouse of the 21st century. Various issues engulfing the sensitive Eurasian region include exploitation of the Caspian seabed resources, ethno-political conflicts, the problems involved in oil and gas transit routes, links with world markets and the region's critical security and environmental issues. It is in this environment that the major players within and outside the region are in constant pursuits of their interests:

a.Russia's has multiple interests in Eurasia that are spread across political, economic and security domains. It mainly seeks to preserve its influence over the region and deny the same to US / NATO / EU. Supply of natural resources to Europe and China lies at the heart of Russian politics.

b. USA has substantial political, economic and security interests in the region. Countering Russian resurgence ranks high on the agenda.

c. Europe's interests in the region predominantly revolve around Energy security and preservation of trade relations.

d. China's interests mainly lie in economic domain; though some security concerns over separatism in Western China also figure out.

e. CARs seek to address their economic and security interests in the region.

f. Iran mainly wants to secure its economic interests: i.e. to maximize the advantage of its geo-strategic location.

4.PROJECTED SCENARIOS

With Russia being the principal actor within the region, much of projected scenarios for future of Eurasia revolve around it. Bulk of the environmental analysis of the region has largely been covered in the preceding part.

4.1.Major Trends, Drivers and Uncertainties

For the horizon year of 2030, major trends, drivers and uncertainties are:

Major Trends:

- Emerging centers of power - China, India etc.

- Growing food, water and energy demands around the globe (35, 40 and 50 % respectively) - Consumerism.

- Energy as the main geo-political concern.

- NATO's expansion within Russian sphere of influence.

- Globalization and diffusion of state power.

- Demographic Patterns: shrinking population in Russia (from 141 to 130 Mn); shrinking youth percentage globally.

- Technological advancements.

Drivers

Multiple drivers present multiple combinations of scenarios. Amongst the long list of uncertainties surrounding our future global and regional projections, the major drivers of change in Eurasia have been considered as:

- Energy demand.

- Security maneuvers.

- Regional economies.

- Situation in ME and Afghanistan.

- Rise of China.

- Globalization.

- Institutional strength / governance.

- Technology.

Uncertainties

There is a long list of uncertainties in the projected world of 2030 within and around Eurasia. Some of the important ones are:

- Europe's demand / dependence on Eurasian energy resources.

- Russian influence in CARs.

- Rise of political Islam / separatist tendencies.

- Integrity of EU: post BREXIT.

- Petroleum prices after exploitation of shale gas resources.

- Continued rise or disintegration of China.

- Peace in Middle East and Afghanistan.

- Crisis-prone global economy.

- Impact of new technologies - constructive and disruptive.

- Capacity of Russian institutions to absorb and manage change.

- Governance gap due to diffusion of state power.

- Climate Change, natural disasters, food crises and pandemics.

4.2.Scenarios

Plotted on a 2 x 2 matrix, four plausible scenarios for Eurasia emerge. These are:

4.2.1. Scenario-1: The Bear Rises (Top Left)

Assumptions:

- NATO expansion into Eastern Europe.

- Economic sanctions on Russia.

- EU into economic recession.

- Turmoil in ME and Afghanistan.

- High oil prices.

- Russian economy expands East wards.

- Climate change and development of new sea lines of communication (SLOCs) in the Arctic Ocean add to Russian influence [16].

Scenario - 1: Caving in from the lobbying of US Defence-Industrial Complex, exhortations of Ukrainian pro-West government and domestic political pressures on European states, ABM Shield Batteries were deployed in Poland and Ukraine with establishment of NATO bases in Baltic States by 2020. Tit-for-tat economic sanctions sent EU into an economic recession; and largely marginalizing the economic block by 2030 due to other systemic causes. Western plans of alternate pipelines, by-passing Russia, could not materialize due to political and technical reasons. Continued crisis in Middle East and North Africa took the oil prices beyond US$ 150 per barrel by end 2020, providing a fillip to Russian economy. By 2020, Russian industrial sector started picking up - leading to diversification of its economy. Russia, forced to look eastward, cashed in on the Chinese option of New Silk Route connecting both Eurasian and Chinese economies by 2022. Pakistan-China Economic Corridor, linking Gawadar Port with Urumqi, was completed in 2025. Eurasia, China and South Asia emerge as the most powerful economic block in the world by 2030.

4.2.2.Scenario-2: Utopia (Top Right)

Assumptions:

- Ukraine settles peacefully.

- NATO expansion capped.

- EU and Russia economic cooperation enhanced.

- Limited unrest in ME. Peace in Afghanistan.

- Russian economy expands East wards.

Scenario - 2: Prudence prevails in both the Western and Russian policies. After a terrible winter in Ukraine amidst suspension of Russian gas supply, negative growth in major European economies due to reciprocal economic sanctions, rapprochement began in 2019. After a UN-brokered re-election in Ukraine, East Ukraine gain regional autonomy; EU and NATO's eastward expansion capped. With change in Russian political leadership in 2024, Andrey R. Belousov came into power with strong belief in economic upsurge. Institutional reforms were put in place and economic cooperation with Europe soared; while both retained their regional identities as separate economic and political blocks. With limited unrest in ME, demand of crude oil around the world increased; but oil prices remained steady. Options with China were optimally exploited. Peace in Afghanistan brought greater prosperity to CARs with completion of TAPI pipeline in 2025; almost in time with completion of Pakistan-China Economic Corridor.

4.2.3.Scenario-3: Hibernation (Bottom Right)

- Assumptions:

- Ukraine settles peacefully.

- Break-through in cheaper shale gas technology.

- Peace in ME and Afghanistan.

- EU's dependence on Russian gas supplies reduced.

- Oil prices drop.

- Russian economy contracts.

Scenario - 3: While political de-escalation measures were taken by US, European countries and Russia, stand-off over Ukraine petered out. NATO's eastward expansion was capped. Peace prevailed in Middle East by 2020; and Iran's relations with US improved greatly. A cheaper 'fracturing' technology enabled exploitation of world's shale gas reserves, substantially reducing Europe's dependence on Russian energy. Falling oil prices hit Russia hard. In reaction to this, the government nationalized parts of the economy in 2020; further exacerbating the decline.

4.2.4.Scenario-4: Into The Vortex (Bottom Left)

Assumptions:

- Ukraine conflict intensifies and results into direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.

- NATO expands Eastwards till Russian border.

- EU and Russia confrontation.

- Break-through in cheaper shale gas technology.

- Peace in ME and Afghanistan.

- Oil prices drop.

Scenario - 4:. With harsher economic sanctions and decisions for deployment of ABM Batteries in Poland and Ukraine, the battle-lines were almost drawn in Europe by 2019. In Aug 2018, Russian forces marched into Ukraine, exercising their 'Right to Protect' ethnic Russian population of Ukraine. Intense diplomatic and military posturing. A series of conflicts in 2020's over Belarus, Georgia and again Ukraine kept Europe and Russia tied down in a zero-sum game - seriously undermining the economic growth. Falling oil prices hit Russia hard. By 2025, Europe and Russia both got into economic recession due to systemic flaws; lack of institutional reforms and over-reliance on proceeds from oil sales respectively. This spiraled into a global economic crisis. By 2030, EU disintegrated and Russia lost control over CARs, Belarus and its resource rich Far East.

4.2.5.Conclusions

a. European economy is heavily dependent on Russian gas. No other alternative can replace it, at least, till medium term. Any suspension in supply can send major European economies into recession.

b. Given the increasingly energy-hungry economy of China and abundance of the same in Eurasia, there are natural complementarities between the two regions.

c. Much of the Eurasian power-politics appear to revolve around the control of and access to Central Asian oil and gas reserves.

d. Russian revisionism in Crimea and Central Asia suggests that its influence over the region's hydrocarbon resources is likely to continue till at least short to medium term.

e. US and NATO forces have gained footholds in Eastern Europe through 'Partnership for Peace ' initiative; and in CARs for support of GWOT in Afghanistan after 9/11.

f. Historically, Russians perceive their western border as their Achilles' Heel'. Expansion of NATO into Ukraine presents a precarious Security Dilemma to Russia - a probable 'Red Line'.

5.THE WAY FORWARD

Over a period of time European Union has emerged as a powerful geopolitical entity. It has come a long way from the courtship between most developed founding members' to a Europe-wide superpower ready to climb rungs of social and economic order on the global ladder. Theoretical framework of European integration still seems vague as it is transitions towards consolidation. In this context, the EU foreign policy is also evolving under impact of reasons stemming from both structural and political context and from external geopolitical trends. Despite the fact that the common EU foreign policy is still a vague concept, dependant on constant dialectic change within the EU itself, it is clear that now we can talk about the existence of certain rules [17].

5.1.Foreign Policy

Despite the fact that concept of European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) was focused towards EU expansion to the East, started in 2004. However, the integration of new members into EU remains a blurry concept causing evident frustration among the struggling countries vying to join band of brothers. Thus, it is imperative to find new solutions to the challenges related to the integration of the CEE countries. Though signing of Association Agreements with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine in June 2014 and the establishment of a visa-free regime with Moldova has brought European Neighbourhood Policy and Eastern Partnership Programme to a completely new level yet crisis' like (Ukraine, Crimea, Russia's virtual control in the former Soviet Union area) require better unity of the EU and the development of fundamentally new approaches to its Eastern policy.

EU has remained traditionally fragile in building a consensus towards bilateral engagement with Russia. Still we see divided opinion even on issues like Ukraine. Two clear blocks; one with a relatively hawkish approach, in favour to put all possible sanctions on Russia and second having comparatively lenient view like France, Italy, Hungary. A unified pro European approach settling down Russian insecurities, ensuring long term peace in the region is the only solution. EU must withstand that European agenda is far supreme and obligatory than serving US interests in the region resulting into undue pressure on underdeveloped CEE countries.

5.2. Trade Policy

Favorable trade policy regimes for creating a common EU - EAEU economic space in the wake of sanctions, anti-globalization movements and Brexit are the biggest challenges to EU. Protectionism wave initiated by USA recently in shape of steel tariffs, initiating an unannounced trade war will have serious adverse consequences. Regarding EUEAEU potential trade deals, negotiations cannot start unless relations with AA/DCFTA countries (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) are settled. EU-EAEU agreement will be more than just a FTA and results are not to be expected before the next decade. Thus a pro EAEU approach incorporating Russia and other stake holders is a must to ensure long term trade relations in Eastern Europe.

5.3. Energy Policy

Dialogue between EU and EAEU is seen as vital for economic cooperation in Europe. The reasons why the EU remains on the sidelines include skepticism about whether the EAEU project will really materialize.

One reason for the EU's reticence is certainly the EAEU's strategic importance for Russia and its consequent geopolitical relevance. For Moscow the EAEU is one element of the balance of power in a multipolar world, creating a counterweight to both China's Belt and Road initiative and to the European Union. But in restricting its vision to geopolitics and security, the EU is ignoring the EAEU's potential to generate progress on market liberalization and diversification.

The energy space joining Europe and Asia is increasingly being shaped by actors other than the EU. China's Belt and Road strategy, which is successively bringing in individual EU member states through moves like the 16+1 initiative, is the most prominent example. In general terms, it is energy infrastructures and interconnectivity that create and shape integrated energy spaces. If diverging legal and regulatory spaces now emerge, new fault lines, barriers and fractures will appear where they meet, with repercussions for commercial activity and market transactions [18].

6.CONCLUSIONS

The evolving geo-strategic calculus in Eurasia has enormous global and regional implications. Where on one hand, it threatens to destabilize the region, it has also begun to show signs of greater Sino-Russian cooperation in future. Recent developments of New Silk Route ' and Russia-China and CARsChina oil and gas pipelines hold massive opportunities. The critical element hence, the importance of peace in Afghanistan; for which, a regional solution should be brokered with Pakistan, Russia and China playing their due roles.

Footnote

ENDNOTES

[1] Zbigniew, Brzeziński, The grand chess board: American primacy and its geostrategic imperatives, New York, NY, Basic Books, 2006, p-31.

[2] Christopher I. Beckwith; Empires of the Silk Road: A History of Central Eurasia from the Bronze Age to the Present;

[3] "Georgia opts out of ex-Soviet military cooperation body". Pravda.Ru. Accessed on 24 Mar 2018.

[4] European Commission. "The EU Single Market: Fewer barriers, more opportunities". Europa web portal. Archived from the original on 1 October 2007. Retrieved, 24 March 2018. "Activities of the European Union: Internal Market" . Europa web portal. Retrieved 24 March 2018

[5] "EU collects Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo". British Broadcasting Corporation. 10 December 2012. Retrieved 24 Mar 2018.

[6] John McCormick (14 November 2006). The European Superpower. ISBN 9781-4039-9846-0.

[7] Johanna Granville, "The Many Paradoxes of NATO Enlargement" Current History (April 1999), vol. 98, no. 627, pp. 165-170

[8] http://wdi.worldbank.org/table/3.15 World Development Indicators; accessed on 28 Mar 2018.

[9] James Leigh, "Contemporary Europe in Eurasian Geo politics" [e-mail]

[10] http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR 525.html Accessed on 21 Mar 2018.

[11] Edward Lucas, The New Cold War: Putin's Russia and the Threat to the West, New York, Palgrave MacMillan, 2008, p-129.

[12] http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR 525.html Accessed on 21 Mar 2018.

[13] Jim Nichol, Coordinator Specialist in Russian and Eurasian Affairs, "Russian Political, Economic, and Security Issues and U.S. Interests". 31 Mar 2018.

[14] Ibid. Since 2002, Moscow has led the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which binds Russia to Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

[15] http://www.theatl anti c .com/internati onal/archi ve/2014/03/no-american-weakness-didntencourage-putin-to-invade-ukraine/284168/ accessed on 10 Mar 2018.

[16] Russia is the dominant nation in the Arctic Sea: commanding about 54% of the Arctic Coastline. Development of new SLOCs within the Arctic Sea would give Russia the access to large hydrocarbon resources of the Arctic region; besides enhancing its control over the new and much shorter northern routes.

[17] Foreign Policy Of European Union: Eurasian Agenda, Oleksiy KANDYUK, CES Working Papers - Volume VIII, Issue 3, page 348

[18] Eurasian Economic Union Integrates Energy Markets - EU Stands Aside, Maria Pastukhova and Kirsten Westphal, page 5, German Institute for International and Security Affairs

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