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Last spring, when Rudy Giuliani was a fresh face in the mayor's race, business people flocked to hear the former U.S. attorney, packing forums ranging from the Brooklyn Chamber of Commerce to the Fifth Avenue Association.
Ten days ago, the prestigious New York Building Congress barely filled a small dining room for Mr. Giuliani.
New York's business community, having leaped off the fence to rally behind Mayor Ed Koch's reelection bid, may be jumping back on the fence following David Dinkins' decisive victory in the Democratic primary last week. But experts say business is unlikely to stay there for long, and will rally, however reluctantly, behind the Democratic nominee.
The Manhattan borough president starts off as the early business favorite in the eight-week race because he's better known and trusted than his Republican rival, Mr. Giuliani. That he leads in the polls is crucial, too, because business traditionally backs front-runners.
Even real estate developers who oppose some of Mr. Dinkins' stands respect the work that he's done on the Board of Estimate over the past four years.
"You can't label him as anti-development," says Steven Spinola, president of the Real Estate Board of New York. "He looks at projects on a case-by-case basis."
Mr. Giuliani's chance to sway business leaders to his side will depend on whether the Republican candidate begins climbing in the polls and on whether he starts to espouse a coherent, detailed plan for managing the city and spurring economic growth. He could also benefit from business' naturally conservative bias and his access to major Republican national contributors.
Both candidates should benefit from some executives' desire to play it safe and support anyone with a good chance. In particular, a number of Wall Street and real estate officials will probably give to both candidates. In the primary, many in real estate gave money to both Messrs. Koch and Dinkins, although the sums given to the mayor were far greater.
"It's such an even call," says one developer. "A lot of people say: `Let's give $2,000 to both of them.'"
Most business officials seemed stunned last week by Mr. Dinkins' decisive triumph over Mr. Koch in the primary. Many thought the mayor had pulled the race out after coming back from far...