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ABSTRACT
System dynamics models help explain why intuitive, well-intentioned solutions to social problems go awry when introduced into complicated social systems. In this article, the author develops a dynamic model, applying it to runaway and homeless youth behavior and shelter usage. Together, the model and supporting evidence imply that simple linear thinking may guide policy expansion to the detriment of homeless youth. Shelters provide incentives for other service systems to neglect difficult cases, which raises serious questions about the efficacy of the shelter system. This model provides common ground upon which practitioners, administrators, policymakers, and research communities can consider the impact and effectiveness of policy and service. Furthermore, the model challenges these communities to bring dynamic system considerations to their work.
In the aftermath of the highly publicized Rilya Wilson case in which a 5-year-old child was "lost" by the Florida foster care system, state officials nationwide have combed their foster care records for missing children (Canedy, 2002, May 1, May 3; "Florida's little," 2002). In Michigan, for example, 302 children were declared missing from its system in August 2002. The names, photographs, and brief descriptions of these children were posted immediately on the state's official Web site. It was no surprise to those in the business of adolescent services that most of these "missing" youth were runaway teenagers. In the late 1960s, the problem of runaway youth emerged as one of public significance (Staller, 2003). Since then, the label missing children, which encompasses stranger abductions, noncustodial kidnappings as well as running away, has come into vogue (Best, 1990).
The shift in public discourse following the Wilson case is significant. Since the mid 1970s the predominant service delivery system available for runaway adolescents has been an extensive network of private runaway and homeless youth shelters. Yet in the post-Rilya Wilson context, public institutions are being implicated in the missing (or runaway) child problem for the first time. In this article, I present a conceptual theoretical model for considering the service delivery system for runaway youth and the evidence that supports the model, offering a critique of existing services. Not surprisingly, children missing from public systems of care have a place in this discussion.
Forrester's Framework of System Dynamics and Its Relevance to Social Science