Could First Fleet smallpox infect Aborigines? - a note

Abstract

Contrariwise, several authors - including Josephine Flood, Alan Frost, Charles Wilson and Judy Campbell - maintain that First Fleet smallpox did not cause the outbreak as, in Flood's words, 'infection of Aborigines with bottled scabs was not merely implausible but impossible'.1 However this view is based on an assumption that the hot weather during the Fleet's voyage and at Sydney Cove would have sterilised any smallpox virus. Curr and Tidswell assumed that smallpox from a hypothetical outbreak on the Alexander remained infective and escaped into the community.5 Early in the 20th century, EC Stirling and JB Cleland suggested that the 1789 outbreak of smallpox may have originated from Asian seafarers arriving in northern Australia.6 In 1914, JHL Cumpston rejected this view on the grounds that the First Fleet's: variolous matter cannot be dismissed lightly as a possible source of the epidemic ... the safest course would seem to be to follow the generally accepted theory that the introduction of the disease amongst the aborigines was in some way associated with the arrival in Australia of a comparatively large number of Europeans.7 In the 1980s Noel Butlin suggested 'the British were well aware'8 that First Fleet smallpox could 'remain infective for many years' and that Tench's 'wild' and 'unworthy' supposition needed closer inspection.9 This proposition was supported by David Day10 but contested by Judy Campbell, Charles Wilson and Alan Frost who argued that, as 'variolous matter' was damaged by conditions during the First Fleet's voyage, it was incapable of transmitting infection.11 After the year 2000 - and except for a few including Reynolds, Foley and Maynard and Kociumbas12 - the rigour of the literature degenerates. First Fleet surgeons would not have purchased fluid variolous matter or moist pus on cotton as mould and humidity would have endangered the virus.18 This suggests First Fleet material was dried variolous matter and we know from Dr Gatti, a leading contemporary physician, that 18th century inoculators were advised to use 'powdered matter' when 'only scabs are to be had'.19 The inclusion of variolous material in medical supplies by sea-surgeons was not compulsory in the 18th century,20 as its use was still objectionable to many; smallpox was relatively rare at sea, and incidental outbreaks could be handled by sourcing fluid variolous matter from patients.21 Nonetheless, with children aboard, First Fleet surgeons may have purchased variolous materials before departure from England or at Rio de Janerio. According to William Russell, the Superintendent-General of Vaccination and Inoculation in Bengal, scabs were 'one of the most certain means of preserving the [cowpox] Virus in a state of activity for a length of time, and the easiest mode of conveying the Infection to a distance'.22 In 1804, cowpox scab material was recommended for transmitting vaccine virus from Bengal to New South Wales23 and as late as 1813, we still find scab material being used.24 All things considered, it appears that First Fleet bottles contained scabs although some bottles may have contained other forms of dried inoculation material.25 The voyage The First Fleet departed Portsmouth in May 1787 and sailed through tropical heat while crossing the equator en route to Rio de Janerio.

In April 1789, British colonists at Sydney Cove noticed large numbers of Aborigines dying from smallpox. Two hundred years later this event still raises concerns that unknown First Fleeters may have infected Aboriginal clans with smallpox. Contrariwise, several authors - including Josephine Flood, Alan Frost, Charles Wilson and Judy Campbell - maintain that First Fleet smallpox did not cause the outbreak as, in Flood's words, 'infection of Aborigines with bottled scabs was not merely implausible but impossible'.1

However this view is based on an assumption that the hot weather during the Fleet's voyage and at Sydney Cove would have sterilised any smallpox virus. This is not so and none of these authors have tested their 'hot weather' assumption by referring to the temperature records of the First Fleet. Once this is done alternative conclusions follow.

This article reviews the evidence and demonstrates that British smallpox could retain sufficient viral activity until 1789 to infect local Aborigines. Whether infection occurred from this source is a separate issue that remains shrouded in conflicting evidence and is not being considered here.

The literature

The 1789 outbreak of smallpox is controversial but the question we are concerned with here, the continuing infectivity of British smallpox, can be separated from associated issues. Other issues are canvassed by Cumpston, Curson and Campbell.2 Material on the infectivity and transmission of smallpox was published in Dixon and by the World Health Organisation in Smallpox and its eradication authored by Frank Fenner and others.3

Of the 18th-century literature concerning the 1789 outbreak, only the memoirs of Captain Watkin Tench mention stocks of smallpox material. There is no mention of smallpox material in the official lists of medical supplies. There is one other mention in the 18th century of smallpox material - in Philip Gidley King's 1792 letter to Sir Joseph Banks requesting supplies to protect children at Norfolk Island if necessary.4

In the 19th century, Edward Curr and Frank Tidswell concluded that the 1789 smallpox outbreak originated from the First Fleet but no author appears to have addressed the role, if any, of the British supplies. Curr and Tidswell assumed that smallpox from a hypothetical outbreak on the Alexander remained infective and escaped into the community.5

Early in the 20th century, EC Stirling and JB Cleland suggested that the 1789 outbreak of smallpox may have originated from Asian seafarers arriving in northern Australia.6 In 1914, JHL Cumpston rejected this view on the grounds that the First Fleet's:

variolous matter cannot be dismissed lightly as a possible source of the epidemic ... the safest course would seem to be to follow the generally accepted theory that the introduction of the disease amongst the aborigines was in some way associated with the arrival in Australia of a comparatively large number of Europeans.7 In the 1980s Noel Butlin suggested 'the British were well aware'8 that First Fleet smallpox could 'remain infective for many years' and that Tench's 'wild' and 'unworthy' supposition needed closer inspection.9 This proposition was supported by David Day10 but contested by Judy Campbell, Charles Wilson and Alan Frost who argued that, as 'variolous matter' was damaged by conditions during the First Fleet's voyage, it was incapable of transmitting infection.11

After the year 2000 - and except for a few including Reynolds, Foley and Maynard and Kociumbas12 - the rigour of the literature degenerates. In 2002 Judy Campbell labelled Butlin's work as myth-making and claimed that his comments damaged 'prospects for reconciliation in modern Australia'.13 In addition several commentators - John Connor, Tim Flannery and Tom Keneally - introduced problematic variations into the literature. These authors claim there was only 'a bottle' of smallpox scabs14 and that it 'remained sealed'15 or 'unbroken and secure on a shelf'.16 At this point the literature provides no resolution and various writers simply recycle past theories for alternative sources for the outbreak or support First Fleet responsibility, depending on their varying estimations of the relevance of the imported British supplies of smallpox. However scientific papers on the infectivity of smallpox, particularly several items published in the Bulletin of the World Health Organization and The Lancet in the 20th century, can provide additional clarification (discussed below).

In general, the post-Butlin claims of destruction of smallpox virus by heat during the First Fleet's voyage have prolonged controversy - much of it revisiting old issues that otherwise would be unsustainable. To some extent this controversy compromises scholarly examination of 'first contact' and 'frontier conflict' issues and diverts Aboriginal history from foundational themes.

Smallpox at Sydney Cove

As noted above, we have only one report of smallpox materials at Sydney Cove - a pointed quote from Captain Watkin Tench informing his readers that First Fleet surgeons 'had brought out variolous matter in bottles'.17 'Variolous material' is the 18th century term for infectious smallpox scabs or pus collected from infected patients and used to prevent others contracting the disease. ('Variola' is the Latin name for the smallpox virus.) Unfortunately Tench did not indicate what type of variolous matter he was referring to. First Fleet surgeons would not have purchased fluid variolous matter or moist pus on cotton as mould and humidity would have endangered the virus.18 This suggests First Fleet material was dried variolous matter and we know from Dr Gatti, a leading contemporary physician, that 18th century inoculators were advised to use 'powdered matter' when 'only scabs are to be had'.19 The inclusion of variolous material in medical supplies by sea-surgeons was not compulsory in the 18th century,20 as its use was still objectionable to many; smallpox was relatively rare at sea, and incidental outbreaks could be handled by sourcing fluid variolous matter from patients.21 Nonetheless, with children aboard, First Fleet surgeons may have purchased variolous materials before departure from England or at Rio de Janerio.

The capacity of smallpox-related virus in scabs to survive long sea voyages should not be underestimated. According to William Russell, the Superintendent-General of Vaccination and Inoculation in Bengal, scabs were 'one of the most certain means of preserving the [cowpox] Virus in a state of activity for a length of time, and the easiest mode of conveying the Infection to a distance'.22 In 1804, cowpox scab material was recommended for transmitting vaccine virus from Bengal to New South Wales23 and as late as 1813, we still find scab material being used.24 All things considered, it appears that First Fleet bottles contained scabs although some bottles may have contained other forms of dried inoculation material.25

The voyage

The First Fleet departed Portsmouth in May 1787 and sailed through tropical heat while crossing the equator en route to Rio de Janerio. For some writers, this period of hot weather, plus the heat experienced through a summer or two at Sydney Cove, would have deactivated any smallpox. Charles Wilson, for example, claims that as variola 'passed en voyage through tropical temperatures ranging from 82 degrees upwards ... It is hardly possible that [it] could have remained active in such conditions for such a period of time.'26 However, this is incorrect, because Wilson misinterprets the temperature data. The First Fleet records indicate that smallpox passed through temperatures ranging only from 82 degrees and below.

The records kept by Captain Hunter and Lieutenant Bradley (on HMS Sirius) and surgeon White (on the Charlotte) provide two sets of independent data.27 The highest reading was from the Charlotte on 26 June 1787 (85oF at noon) but Hunter and Bradley in HMS Sirius did not corroborate this. They recorded 82oF. As no higher noon cabin temperature was recorded, it is clear that, during the voyage, smallpox materials insulated in chests and packaging never reached '82 degrees and upwards' (see Appendix). Of course, it is also necessary to consider the nature of the heat experienced after arrival at Sydney Cove, and here, Lieutenant William Dawes' records of land-based temperatures throughout 1788 and 1789 are available. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology published the data in 1981.28

Sydney Cove temperature

William Dawes' temperature data consist of temperature readings at various times of the day such as 'b.s.r.' (before sunrise), 's.s.' (sunset) and noon. Despite the lack of uniformity in the times of each day's readings we can estimate the likely daily mean air temperatures as between Dawes' daily lowest and highest temperature recordings. The results are displayed in Fig. 1.

Dawes' data show two instances of daily temperatures exceeding 100oF but on both occasions the preceding morning and following evening temperatures were much lower. Such isolated heat peaks would not affect well-insulated stocks of smallpox. In general, given consistently cooler minimums usually below 70oF, we can assume that contents of medicine chests in storage did not warm over 80oF (27°C) for significant periods.

Other attempts to estimate the First Fleet's temperature environment at Sydney Cove have not been successful. Frost in Botany Bay mirages and Campbell in Invisible invaders exclusively rely on anecdotal, informal temperature data. Frost cites peak readings from thermometers occasionally exposed to hot wind and/or direct sunshine. He claims this data (eg 38.8°C for November and 44.4°C for December) 'may be taken as indicative' of Sydney weather.29 This is not so; and single readings from thermometers 'occasionally exposed to hot wind and direct sunshine', should be rejected. Campbell and Flood base much of their smallpox deactivation thesis on the same data30 without mentioning the hot wind and direct sunshine.

The impact of hot wind in distorting temperature readings is well illustrated by Peter Cunningham's observation that thermometers in the shade, due to the effects of hot wind, rose instantly 'from eighty degrees to a hundred and ten'.31 We also have the evidence of both surgeon Worgan and Tench that temperature readings commonly fell by as much as 30oF in a day32 and occasionally over 50oF.33 Such radical daily variations suggest that Frost and Campbell's temperatures do not represent the more moderate temperatures that reached the smallpox. The chest contents would have remained close to each day's average depending on the insulation and the thermal mass. Frost and Campbell's data also conflicts with modern data that indicates that Sydney maximum temperatures only average 26°C (79oF).34

Smallpox virus survival

Smallpox is exceptionally stable when dried especially if kept in a cool place35 and survives for years under suitable conditions.36 According to James Moore, Chinese traditional inoculators kept scabs 'in close jars for years'.37 In Britain, it is reported that variolous matter kept for a year and a half 'in a small bottle' was used by an inoculator apparently without adverse comment.38 According to Peter Razzell, variolators successfully stored material 'for several years, before using it to good effect'. He quotes an example (actually from the Shetland Islands) of an inoculator, John Williamson, who preserved virus underground 'a long time before he puts it to use - sometimes seven or eight years'.39

Possible instances of smallpox surviving for decades in cool and temperate climates have been recorded. For example, reportedly, smallpox from a 30-year-old grave in Somerset, England, infected 14 people when opened in 1759.40 In Montreal, when immense quantities of smallpox, ie dozens of smallpox corpses, were buried in soil close to and below 0°C and accidentally reopened years later, a local outbreak of smallpox suggested that residual infectivity persisted for more than 100 years.41

Even when stored in undesirable conditions, virus in dried scabs retained residual infectivity for at least two years. This is apparent from traditional variolators in Afghanistan who told World Health Organisation investigators they could retain smallpox scabs for two years but such material was not reliable.42 The Afghans sought to replenish their stocks each year. In the 18th century in India, inoculators frequently used virus four or five years old albeit with some degeneration.43 More recent analysis by PD Meers also indicates that smallpox virus survives for long periods. In 1985 after reviewing the evidence he concluded that inactivation might take 25 years at room temperature or longer if cooler.44 In 1986 American anthropologist Steadman Upham concluded that virus remained infective for years. He noted that:

in environments with temperatures between 22°C and 30°C and with relative humidities between 25% and 55%, variola virus remains stable and infective for a number of years. As temperature and humidity rise above 30°C and 55% respectively, variola virus rapidly loses infectivity.45

Further evidence for smallpox longevity is available in the scientific literature, although reports from scientific studies need careful interpretation before applying them to First Fleet smallpox. In particular, results from studies of virus in aerosols, in glass capillaries or as smears on slides, cannot be used to assess the behaviour of smallpox in dried scabs as the form of the material affects virus longevity.46 In 1947, Professor AW Downie and KR Dumbell examined the survival of virus in dried scabs. According to their data,47 smallpox virus in scabs kept between 18°C and 20°C survive for over a year. They also noted that if their experiment had continued they would have shown virus surviving for a longer period.48

Occasionally scientific studies have been misapplied. For example, Frost cites a finding by FO MacCallum and JR McDonald that virus from scabs survived for mere months at a continuous temperature of 30°C (86oF). However, this has no relevance to First Fleet smallpox, as First Fleet stocks never experienced 30°C, day and night, as in MacCallum and McDonald's incubator.49 By citing incubator results, Frost omits the more important and radically different results MacCallum and McDonald obtained from samples exposed to a day-night temperature cycle between 20°C and 24°C. In these conditions the virus in scabs outlived the 18-month experiment.50 MacCallum and McDonald stated that smallpox can 'survive for many years, ten or more, at from 4°C to 5°C in closed bottles'.51 Campbell also used incubator temperatures (35°C)52 and therefore estimated the impact of temperature on First Fleet smallpox incorrectly.

Frost cites a finding by Professor Arie Zuckerman that smallpox is 'unlikely to survive in dried crusts (and presumably clothing) for more than a year'.53 Frost then suggests that due to weather conditions 'there must be considerable doubt that the smallpox virus would have remained "live"'.54 However, the original author of Zuckerman's statement was Isao Arita,55 and it must be understood in its original context. Arita's statement only concerned 45 samples of tribal variolation material collected in Afghanistan, Ethiopia and Pakistan. This has little relevance to First Fleet smallpox, as British smallpox material was not stored in the same manner as tribal material.

The relevant research on the deactivation of smallpox in natural circumstances is the work of HL Wolff and JJ Croon, reported in the Bulletin of the World Health Organization in 1968.56 Wolff and Croon examined the deactivation of smallpox stored in unsealed double envelopes in a laboratory cupboard as temperatures ranged from 30°C in summer to below 15°C at night. In these conditions smallpox deactivated slowly. Their data showed smallpox lost activity over many years (see Table 1).57

As Wolff and Croon's experiment included normal daily and seasonal temperature variations, their findings provide a benchmark for assessing the impact of temperatures on smallpox materials during the voyage and at Sydney Cove. Their data suggest that where smallpox temperatures remain between 15°C and 30°C, virus activity declines to around half strength every couple of years.

In the case of First Fleet smallpox, however, there are additional considerations. In particular it can be assumed that the smallpox was better insulated than Wolff and Croon's supply. The insulation would have consisted of several elements: the cooler microclimate in the ship's storeroom (or storehouse when on shore); the medicine chest or other container; the still air inside the chest; any additional packaging; and finally the glass or ceramic bottles containing the smallpox. This much greater thermal insulation, compared to Wolff and Croon's double envelopes, would ensure that First Fleet smallpox was relatively unaffected by any isolated extreme temperatures. Dawes' data (Fig 1) show a period of around three months when daily maximums sometimes peaked over 30°C (86oF) which exceeds the upper limit of Wolff and Croon's temperature range. However the net effect of this short period was minor, firstly because of the insulation but also because of the preservative effect of colder temperatures encountered as the First Fleet approached and crossed latitude 40oS.58

In general then, assuming professional conduct by its custodians, we can conclude that First Fleet smallpox was not exposed to temperatures over 85oF during the voyage or at Sydney Cove. Consequently, unless new records come to light, we can conclude that First Fleet smallpox survived the voyage and storage at Sydney but with some moderate loss of activity as suggested by Wolff and Croon's data (see Table 1). The only remaining question is whether this degraded material could still infect local Aborigines in early 1789.

Smallpox infective?

In general dried scabs are not infective as the virus is locked away in the scab's fibrous matrix and in dried fluid at the base of each scab. However scabs will fracture if blankets, coats and handkerchiefs containing scabs are rubbed against human bodies. This creates particles that may release virus into the human body through nasal membranes, wounds or invisible abrasions. An infective dose can be as low as one infectious particle59 although around 300 infectious particles per ml may be required for a 50% success rate.60 Possible low dosage requirements and informal transmission mechanisms were demonstrated by the 1966 and 1978 Birmingham61 and Aberdeen62 outbreaks of smallpox. Very minute doses of virus must have caused these outbreaks. Using Wolff and Croon (Table 1) we can infer that if the British smallpox was 2 or 3 years old by 1789, it could have maintained around 50,000 viable particles per scab.63 Even if the First Fleet's smallpox suffered greater heat and degenerated to half or quarter of this strength, it is still probable there remained thousands of viable particles per scab.

In either case, this material appears sufficient for transmitting a mild case of smallpox to local Aborigines either by opportunistic variolation through casual skin scratches or wounds, or by insufflation through the nose.64 While initially this may cause a mild infection, any such first cases would infect their associates by releasing virus in aerosols that subsequently could enter the bloodstream through the mucous membranes of the upper respiratory tract. This second route of entry may easily ignite a major outbreak of smallpox. In 2003 Frank Fenner suggested that the only way First Fleet material could transmit smallpox (ie 'take') 'would be by surgeons using their lancets for deliberate variolation'.65 This is arguable. Smallpox material around two years old may not have been capable of guaranteeing successful variolation when used in deliberate single doses but such material would have retained sufficient viral activity to infect at least one or two susceptible Aborigines if applied more generally.

Conclusion

Wolff and Croon's data, historical anecdotes concerning smallpox longevity in the environment, the temperature records of First Fleeters, insights from contemporary medical practices and WHO statements on the infectiousness of smallpox all provide a firm basis for interpreting the historical record concerning the British smallpox materials in New South Wales in 1788. There is little doubt that smallpox scabs collected in 1787, if handled professionally, would have retained significant viral activity for more than two years. King's 1792 request to Banks indicates King had no concerns about a voyage damaging the virus. Combined with the very low dosage for infection this demonstrates that if deployed in significant quantities (ie bottles), the First Fleet's smallpox could infect highly susceptible people such as local Aborigines around Port Jackson sometime before April 1789.

Sidebar

Christopher Warren is an independent researcher. He has a BA from The Australian National University. He grew up in Condobolin and Wagga Wagga. He has worked as a Research Officer/Senior Research Officer in the Australian Public Service for 30 years. He can be contacted at: [e-mail]

Footnote

1. Flood 2006: 125.

2. Cumpston 1914; Curson 1985; Campbell 2002.

3. Dixon 1962; Fenner et al 1988. The latter resource is available on the internet at http://whqlibdoc.who.int/smallpox/9241561106.pdf

4. Copy at http://www.sl.nsw.gov.au/banks/series_39/39_004.cfm (accessed 24 October 2006).

5. Curr 1886: 226. Tidswell's comment is in Cumpston 1914: 172.

6. Stirling 1911; Cleland 1912.

7. Cumpston 1914: 2.

8. See Butlin 1985: 334.

9. Butlin 1983: 21.

10. Day 1997[1996]: 63.

11. Campbell 1984; Wilson 1987; Frost 1995.

12. Reynolds 2001; Foley and Maynard 2001; Kociumbas 2004.

13. Campbell 2002: 60f.

14. Connor 2002: 30.

15. Flannery 1999: 88.

16. Keneally 2005: 202, 209.

17. Tench cited in Fitzhardinge 1961: 146.

18. Haygarth 1793: 303; Jenner, 1798: 56f.

19. Gatti 1768: 33.

20. Lloyd and Coulter 1961, vol III: 349.

21. Dr Thomas Trotter in Lloyd 1965: 309f.

22. Russell 1813: 1.

23. Shoolbred 1807: 370.

24. Russell 1813: 1. Ivory tips were used also.

25. James Watt mentions discharge from smallpox sores dried on cotton wool and stored in bottles, see Watt 1989: 145.

26. Wilson 1987: 79.

27. Bradley 1969; White 1971[1790].

28. McAfee 1981.

29. Frost 1995: 202.

30. Campbell 2002: 62; Flood 2006, Note 74: 280.

31. Cunningham 1966: 186.

32. Worgan 1978: 22; see also An Officer 1978: 39. Phillip also noted large (over 30oF) daily temperature ranges, see Commonwealth of Australia 1914: 57.

33. Fitzhardinge 1961: 196.

34. Castles 1992: 107.

35. Fenner 1988: 682.

36. Periodic assays showed that in temperate climates, smallpox scabs could retain infectivity at room temperature for several years. See Fenner 1988: 115b.

37. Moore 1815: 219.

38. Glass 1767: 5.

39. Razzell 1976: 35.

40. Razzell 1976: 35. Low temperatures due to the Little Ice Age would have assisted virus survival.

41. Marsden 1855; Meers 1985: 1103.

42. Fenner et al 1988: 682.

43. Razzell 1976: 35.

44. Meers 1985: 1103. Meers also suggested that should whole corpses be taken into account, or when there are hundreds of victims, 'significant prolongation, perhaps to over 100 years' may follow in the right conditions.

45. Upham 1986: 120.

46. Virus as aerosols or as smears on glass slides deactivates faster than virus in dried scabs. See Downie and Dumbrell 1947: 552.

47. Downie and Dumbrell 1947, Table IV: 552.

48. 'It seems likely that repeated further examinations of our specimens using larger numbers of eggs would have shown the survival of variola virus for longer periods', Downie and Dumbell 1947: 552.

49 MacCallum and McDonald decided not to embark on too extravagant an experiment and tested the effect of a single temperature, 30°C, they believed to be an appropriate mean temperature: see MacCallum and McDonald 1957: 249. Sydney's annual mean temperature is 17.4°C.

50. MacCallum and McDonald 1957, Table III: 252.

51. MacCallum and McDonald 1957: 247.

52. Campbell 2002: 62 - using Huq 1976.

53. Frost 1995: 201.

54. Frost 1995: 202.

55. Arita 1980: 27-29. The age of the sample material was not relevant.

56. Wolff and Croon 1968: 492-493.

57. It is worth noting that Wolff and Croon's data is consistent with the practice of British variolators storing their material for up to seven years.

58. Also, for Sydney, modern mean minimum temperatures are below 15°C from April to October.

59. Fenner et al 1988: 187f stated 'although because of non-specific protective mechanisms a larger dose would usually be required'.

60. Using analogy with vaccina virus, see Fenner et al 1988, Note a, Table 14.15: 684.

61. Two cases of remote smallpox infection at Birmingham Medical School - first in 1966, second in 1978, see Fenner et al 1988: 1100.

62. Reported by Dr AW Downie: see Razzell 1976: 35.

63. Viable particles detected by chick cells could underestimate activity in human cells. Smallpox virus is more active in human than in chick cells at least at some temperatures: see Razzell 1977: 38.

64. Fenner et al 1988: 246.

65. Fenner 2003: 48. Evidence supporting this claim has yet to emerge.

References

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(ProQuest: Appendix omitted.)