Modeling of national and regional residential energy consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions

A modeling framework was developed for modeling the residential energy consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions, for cold (heating dominated) climates, at both regional and national levels. Detailed data requirements were analyzed, and existing data sources were identified and reviewed for suitability in energy modeling. Major inconsistencies and deficiencies in the existing data sources were also identified. New and emerging data sources were identified and their potential use on model development was reviewed. As a result, a comprehensive data collection campaign, including the integration of various existing and emerging data collection campaigns and sources, was proposed and the required total data collection costs were estimated for future data collections and model refinements.

A comprehensive and representative bottom-up engineering based model for estimating end-use energy consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions for the Canadian low-rise single family residential stock was developed, and its detailed developmental procedure is fully documented in this work. This model is called the Canadian Residential End-use Energy Consumption and Emission Model (CREEEM). The model makes extensive use of current Canadian data sources to establish housing characteristics as well as to estimate the amount of energy consumption and associated GHG emissions at the regional, provincial, and national levels.

CREEEM was used to determine the energy consumption and GHG emissions from the Canadian housing stock by type of dwelling, by space heating fuel, by vintage and by province. The estimated total end-use energy consumption and GHG emissions for the 1993 low-rise single-family housing stock were 1000 PJ and 48 Mt, respectively. The average household end-use energy consumption and associated GHG emissions were estimated to be 141 GJ/year and 6.8 t/year, respectively. Electricity usage accounted for nearly half of the total energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sector.

In conclusion, CREEEM, having the capability and flexibility of conducting various comparative studies and assessing policy decisions, provides the most comprehensive and representative bottom-up engineering based model for estimating end-use energy consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions in the Canadian residential sector. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)