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Water Resour Manage (2012) 26:13871407
DOI 10.1007/s11269-011-9964-1
Tran Van Ty & Kengo Sunada & Yutaka Ichikawa & Satoru Oishi
Received: 15 October 2010 /Accepted: 22 December 2011 /
Published online: 11 January 2012# Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012
Abstract This study investigates an interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the potential impacts of climate, land use/cover and population changes on future water availability and demand in the Srepok River basin, a trans-boundary basin. Based on the output from a high-resolution Regional Climate Model (ECHAM 4, Scenarios A2 and B2) developed by the Southeast AsiaSystem for Analysis, Research and Training (SEA-START) Regional Center, future rainfall was downscaled to the study area and bias correction was carried out to generate the daily rainfall series. Land use/cover change was quantified using a GIS-based logistic regression approach and future population was projected from the historical data. These changes, individually or in combination, were then input into the calibrated hydro-logical model (HEC-HMS) to project future hydrological variables. The results reveal that surface runoff will be increased with increased future rainfall. Land use/cover change is found to have the largest impact on increased water demand, and thus reduced future water availability. The combined scenario shows an increasing level of water stress at both the basin and sub-basin levels, especially in the dry season.
Keywords Climate change . Land use/cover change . Water availability . Water demand . Water stress
T. V. Ty (*)
College of Technology, Cantho University, Campus 2, 3/2 Street, Ninh Kieu District, Cantho City, Vietname-mail: [email protected]
K. Sunada : Y. Ichikawa
Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Medicine and Engineering, University of Yamanashi, 4-3-11 Takeda, Kofu, Yamanashi 400-8511, Japan
S. Oishi
Research Center for Urban Safety and Security, Kobe University, 1-1 Rokkodai, Nada-ku, Kobe 657-8501, Japan
Scenario-based Impact Assessment of Land Use/Cover and Climate Changes on Water Resources and Demand: A Case Study in the Srepok River Basin, Vietnam Cambodia
1388 T.V. Ty et al.
1 Introduction
Water resources in many countries are currently under severe pressure from human intervention, such as growing domestic, industrial, and irrigation demands; and the changing of runoff patterns caused by climate and land use/cover changes. Assessing water resources becomes a complex task that must consider many aspects, of which climate and land use/ cover changes...